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Nerd mode: every forecast, readouts, filters and range & bearing for weather enthusiasts

Storm · Forecasts split · Forecast to formNorth Atlantic

A new low could form over the Irminger Sea on Monday afternoon

Forecast to form Mon afternoon, about 600 km S of Tasiilaq; 5 in 10 forecasts show it.

Updated Sat., Sept. 26, 7:10 p.m. UTC · 23 forecast tracks from NOAA and Environment Canada: medium

This storm is no longer in our active list. This is its last forecast, from the Sat 26 Sep 12Z run.

Forecast to form Mon afternoon, about 600 km S of Tasiilaq; 5 in 10 forecasts show it.

Quick answers

As of the Sat 26 Sep 12Z model run · updated Sat., Sept. 26, 7:10 p.m. UTC

Where will the Irminger Sea low form?
Forecasts that develop it have the centre forming about 600 kilometres south of Tasiilaq on Monday afternoon. The forecasts split: 8 in 10 move more slowly, while 2 in 10 move faster.
How sure is the forecast?
Path certainty: medium. 23 of 51 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.
Will the Irminger Sea low become a bomb cyclone?
Unlikely. None of the 51 deepen it fast enough to count as a (a pressure fall of roughly 24 in 24 hours, adjusted for latitude).

New to these maps? Read how to read a spaghetti map, or see the week’s rain and wind around the world on the globe.

What we know

Where it forms. The forecasts that show it have the centre taking shape about 600 kilometres south of Tasiilaq on Monday afternoon, at about 1,002 .

How sure. 23 of 51 show the storm, and they on where it goes. Little has changed since the previous run.1

How strong. Forecasts keep its central pressure near 1,005 through Tuesday. None of them turn it into a rapidly deepening .

What’s uncertain

Whether it forms. 23 of 51 develop it; the rest do not. Storms that exist only in the forecast can change a lot from run to run.

Which way it turns. Eight in 10 forecasts move more slowly; the other two in 10 move faster. By Tuesday afternoon the two paths are about 550 kilometres apart.

Later on. The forecasts fan out after Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the is about 750 kilometres across.2

When it arrives

No town we track is within reach of this storm; it stays about 600 kilometres south of Tasiilaq.

DetailsStrength, sources and the fine print

How strong it gets

Central pressure over time. The line is the middle forecast; the band holds 8 in 10 of them.

(lower is stronger)

Times are shown in

Where the forecasts come from

ModelTracks
NOAA
21 of 3112Z
arrived 1 day ago
NOAA
0 of 112Z
arrived 1 day ago
Environment Canada
2 of 2012Z
arrived 1 day ago
Environment Canada
0 of 112Z
arrived 1 day ago

Also tracking

  1. Bering Sea lowLikely to pass 20–290 km from Kodiak Sun evening; 8 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  2. Typhoon SurigaeCould pass near Tokyo Thu afternoon; 1 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  3. September Nor’easterLikely to pass 50–110 km SE of Islip (Long Island) Mon afternoon; nearly all forecasts bring it within 160 km
  4. North Atlantic low south of IcelandNear Reykjavík now; 1 in 10 forecasts bring it within 160 km
  5. Southern Ocean low in the South AtlanticVery deep low bottoming out near 929 mb Mon morning, in the Southern Hemisphere; all 185 forecasts show it
  6. See all 29 storms →

Notes

  1. Forecast tracks from the 12Z model run: GEFS (31), GFS (1), GEPS (20), CMC (1). A single run is one high-resolution forecast; ensemble forecasts are the same model run many times with small changes.
  2. The cone encloses where the centre is expected to be about two times in three at each hour, from the spread of the forecasts, widened by 20 percent; not yet calibrated against past storms. It shows uncertainty in the track, not the size of the storm.
  3. Shading shows the share of forecasts that bring the centre within 160 kilometres of a spot at any time in the next 2 days. Rain, wind and surge can reach much farther.
  4. Times are in your time zone. Arrival windows run from the earliest to the latest closest approach across forecasts that bring the centre within about 300 miles (500 km).
  5. NOAA/NCEP/EMC.
  6. Environment and Climate Change Canada.
  7. Reading these maps: the illustrated guide to spaghetti models. The week’s rain, wind and temperature everywhere: the Stormlines globe.
  8. Stormlines storm ID: L-2026-0014.

Stormlines draws every storm the world’s ensemble forecasts can see: tracks from NOAA (GEFS and the AI ensemble AIGEFS), ECMWF (ENS and the AI ensemble AIFS) and Environment Canada (GEPS), updated as each model run lands. Coastlines from Natural Earth.

Not an official forecast. For warnings and decisions, follow your national weather service.

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Stormlines Tracks: NOAA, Environment Canada

Full forecast
Through Tue 6 p.m. UTC