{"schema_version":"1.0","id":"L-2026-0015","internal_id":"L-2026-0015","name":null,"aliases":[],"kind":"extratropical","basin":"NAM","status":"forecast","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","generated_at":"2026-09-26T19:10:52Z","sources":[{"model":"gefs","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":31,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T19:02:44Z"},{"model":"gfs","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":1,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T19:02:44Z"},{"model":"geps","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":20,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T18:16:06Z"},{"model":"cmc","cycle":"2026-09-26T12:00:00Z","members":1,"provider":"emc-ml","arrived_at":"2026-09-26T18:16:06Z"}],"headline":{"text":"Low bottoming out near 988 mb Thu evening, about 750 mi NE of Winnipeg; 5 in 10 forecasts show it","confidence":"high"},"p_storm":0.549,"agreement":84,"trend":{"vs_cycle":"2026-09-26T06:00:00Z","shift_km":204.4,"bearing_deg":275.6,"text":"Shifted 130 mi west since 06z"},"flags":{"noreaster":false,"p_bomb":0.0,"min_pressure_hpa":{"p10":976.4,"p50":987.5,"p90":994.3}},"members":[{"model":"gefs","member":"c00","role":"control","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138],"lat":[60.9,60.1,60.4,60.6,60.7,61.1,60.6,58.4,57.8,58.1,58.7,57.7,58.0,57.8],"lon":[-122.3,-116.5,-114.2,-112.1,-109.3,-107.3,-102.7,-96.0,-92.5,-86.4,-84.9,-80.2,-76.2,-72.8],"p":[992.0,993.0,994.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,996.0,996.0,997.0,994.0,991.0,989.0,987.0,987.0],"wind":[6.7,9.8,9.3,9.3,9.8,8.7,8.2,8.7,10.3,10.8,12.9,15.4,14.4,11.8]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p01","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132],"lat":[55.4,57.4,58.8,59.3,59.5,60.4,60.6,61.5,61.5,61.0,60.1,60.2,60.6,60.1,59.4],"lon":[-133.7,-129.5,-122.5,-120.7,-118.6,-114.3,-112.3,-111.4,-109.5,-104.7,-98.6,-93.7,-93.8,-91.6,-88.5],"p":[995.0,993.0,990.0,990.0,991.0,991.0,992.0,993.0,995.0,995.0,996.0,994.0,994.0,996.0,999.0],"wind":[15.9,8.2,7.2,7.7,7.7,9.8,10.3,12.3,13.9,10.8,11.8,13.9,14.4,12.3,12.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p02","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108],"lat":[59.3,59.2,59.1,59.1,59.2,59.4,58.1,57.6,57.2],"lon":[-120.6,-118.2,-115.9,-113.0,-106.9,-104.5,-100.5,-98.5,-96.7],"p":[994.0,996.0,996.0,996.0,998.0,998.0,999.0,999.0,1001.0],"wind":[6.7,7.7,10.3,9.3,8.7,7.7,6.2,7.7,8.7]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p03","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114],"lat":[58.6,58.9,59.9,60.0,59.9,60.1,59.9,59.4,59.3,58.1],"lon":[-121.0,-116.9,-111.8,-109.5,-104.1,-101.8,-99.7,-97.4,-95.3,-89.6],"p":[993.0,994.0,994.0,995.0,995.0,994.0,995.0,995.0,997.0,998.0],"wind":[8.7,6.7,10.3,9.3,7.2,5.7,7.7,7.7,8.2,9.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p05","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[102,108,114,120,126,132,138],"lat":[59.6,60.5,60.9,60.6,60.0,58.9,57.2],"lon":[-96.2,-94.7,-94.0,-93.1,-92.3,-87.6,-80.8],"p":[994.0,993.0,992.0,991.0,992.0,996.0,988.0],"wind":[12.3,13.9,14.4,15.4,15.9,18.5,17.5]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p06","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126],"lat":[58.4,58.5,58.6,59.1,59.6,60.5,60.0,58.7,58.9,58.7,58.4,57.9],"lon":[-123.6,-121.4,-119.4,-116.9,-113.4,-111.8,-106.8,-101.6,-100.9,-99.9,-98.6,-97.4],"p":[993.0,991.0,991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,996.0,993.0,993.0,993.0,995.0,998.0],"wind":[8.2,7.7,8.2,8.7,13.4,12.9,10.8,12.9,13.4,11.8,11.8,12.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p10","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[48,54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108],"lat":[56.2,58.1,59.1,59.1,60.3,60.6,60.6,61.0,61.2,60.8,60.4],"lon":[-133.2,-130.0,-123.6,-122.4,-118.0,-116.5,-114.5,-113.4,-112.5,-109.8,-104.6],"p":[995.0,995.0,993.0,994.0,995.0,996.0,997.0,997.0,998.0,1000.0,1001.0],"wind":[15.9,5.7,7.2,6.2,10.3,10.3,10.3,8.7,10.3,10.3,8.2]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p11","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144],"lat":[58.4,59.4,60.3,60.9,61.4,61.3,61.6,62.1,62.7,64.4,64.3,63.8,63.5],"lon":[-116.3,-111.9,-108.3,-104.5,-101.6,-96.9,-93.8,-90.6,-87.6,-85.5,-84.9,-83.0,-81.6],"p":[992.0,990.0,990.0,990.0,989.0,989.0,988.0,988.0,988.0,987.0,987.0,985.0,984.0],"wind":[7.2,8.7,11.3,11.3,11.8,12.9,13.4,12.3,12.3,12.3,13.4,13.9,12.9]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p13","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144],"lat":[57.6,57.9,58.4,58.7,58.3,58.8,59.5,60.3,60.4,60.4,60.1,58.9],"lon":[-120.0,-117.0,-112.1,-109.2,-105.4,-98.2,-91.5,-89.0,-87.5,-83.5,-81.3,-75.7],"p":[990.0,987.0,985.0,985.0,987.0,986.0,983.0,978.0,975.0,978.0,982.0,985.0],"wind":[7.7,13.9,11.8,13.4,19.5,14.9,12.3,20.6,24.2,26.2,20.6,18.0]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p15","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[108,114,120,126,132],"lat":[58.6,59.2,59.7,59.9,60.1],"lon":[-92.6,-91.1,-90.7,-90.0,-88.4],"p":[1004.0,1004.0,1005.0,1005.0,1006.0],"wind":[10.3,8.2,8.2,8.2,8.2]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p16","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[54,60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114],"lat":[60.8,59.4,60.6,61.0,61.5,61.7,61.9,62.2,61.9,62.4,62.8],"lon":[-123.4,-120.8,-117.5,-115.1,-111.4,-109.6,-106.1,-103.5,-100.5,-94.5,-89.1],"p":[993.0,991.0,991.0,991.0,991.0,991.0,991.0,991.0,992.0,993.0,990.0],"wind":[6.7,8.7,8.7,9.8,9.8,11.3,10.3,10.8,11.3,9.8,12.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p18","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108],"lat":[58.9,59.1,59.5,59.6,59.1,58.5,57.7,58.0],"lon":[-121.5,-118.5,-113.3,-110.8,-107.4,-101.6,-96.3,-92.6],"p":[992.0,992.0,992.0,992.0,993.0,992.0,991.0,989.0],"wind":[6.7,8.7,11.8,10.3,7.7,7.7,8.7,10.3]},{"model":"gefs","member":"p19","role":"perturbed","scenario":0,"t":[60,66,72,78,84,90,96,102,108,114,120,126,132,138,144,150],"lat":[58.4,59.2,60.1,60.4,60.9,61.3,61.0,59.9,60.0,59.2,59.0,58.6,58.6,60.1,60.1,59.9],"lon":[-121.9,-118.2,-114.5,-112.1,-109.3,-106.7,-103.9,-98.4,-98.1,-95.0,-93.1,-90.4,-85.3,-78.8,-77.8,-76.7],"p":[991.0,992.0,993.0,994.0,994.0,995.0,995.0,994.0,995.0,994.0,994.0,996.0,999.0,998.0,99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